Russia is in crossfire with Iran-Israel conflict

(MENAFN) The outbreak of Israel’s military campaign, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, has triggered serious concerns in Moscow, where officials described the Middle East escalation as both “alarming” and “dangerous.” While early commentary in Russian media emphasized potential upsides, those hopes are quickly giving way to unease over the broader consequences for Russia’s regional influence and strategic posture.

Initial reactions in Russian state and pro-government outlets pointed to a few perceived advantages for the Kremlin. These included a projected rise in global oil prices, which could boost Russia's energy revenues; a diversion of international focus away from the war in Ukraine—“Kyiv has been forgotten” was the headline in one major newspaper; and the opportunity to insert itself into the crisis as a mediator, positioning Russia as a diplomatic heavyweight in the Middle East despite its ongoing war in Europe.

However, analysts are now warning that these benefits are being overshadowed by the risks. According to commentary in Russian business circles, the prolonged nature of Israel’s offensive is exposing Moscow’s vulnerabilities and diplomatic limitations in the region.

“The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow,” noted Russian political analyst Andrei Kortunov earlier this week. He pointed out that despite the strategic partnership signed between Russia and Iran just five months ago, Russia was powerless to stop Israel’s broad military strikes on Tehran.

“The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership,” Kortunov wrote. “Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it's not ready to provide Iran with military assistance.”

The agreement signed earlier this year by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian was heavily publicized at the time, but it falls short of a defense pact. It does not commit Moscow to any military support if Iran comes under attack.

Despite that, Russian officials had emphasized the significance of the accord. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in remarks to state media, said the pact emphasized “the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence.”

Now, with Israel striking deep inside Iranian territory, the limitations of that cooperation are being laid bare. Moscow finds itself unable—or unwilling—to take concrete action, leaving its strategic partner exposed and its role in the region increasingly questioned.

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