Report Reveals Carbon Budget to Run Out Within Two Years
(MENAFN) According to a report released Thursday, the world is poised to surpass its remaining carbon budget within just two years if current emission trends persist.
The latest findings, published in Earth System Science Data, reveal that the carbon budget—the total allowable CO2 emissions to keep warming in check—has diminished by 80% since 2020 despite record-high emission levels today.
With only a 66% probability of restricting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), scientists warn that this remaining carbon allowance will be depleted rapidly, within a two-year window.
A carbon budget defines the maximum CO2 emissions permitted over a specific timeframe to maintain temperature goals. While crossing this budget does not immediately breach the 1.5°C limit, it signals a dangerously close approach to that critical threshold.
The report cautions that we are swiftly nearing a point that could trigger irreversible climate consequences, including crossing key tipping points in the Earth’s systems.
Even a temporary overshoot of this budget is expected to intensify heatwaves, floods, droughts, accelerate sea-level rise, and increase wildfire frequency.
After exhausting the carbon budget, maintaining global warming below 1.5°C would require achieving net negative emissions—removing more CO2 from the atmosphere than is emitted—a technically daunting task.
The report underscores that surpassing the 1.5°C carbon budget drastically undermines efforts to avoid the most severe effects of climate change.
An urgent call for significant and immediate reductions in emissions is essential to avert these worst-case outcomes.
Though the threshold has not yet been crossed, the window of opportunity to stay within it is rapidly closing.
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