AGP Executive Report

Biofuel Push: India launched E85 (85% ethanol) and highlighted flex-fuel vehicles as a way to cut crude imports and support rural ethanol demand. AI & Education: A debate in India’s classrooms is shifting from “will AI make kids lazy?” to “which students is AI actually designed to help?” Judicial Reform: India’s Supreme Court AI rules and broader calls for better judges point to quality gaps, not just more vacancies. Markets & Energy: Asian stocks steadied after Israel-Iran ceasefire signals, while oil and bond yields stayed key swing factors. China Trade Momentum: China’s exports rose 19.4% in May, powered by chips, autos and high-tech goods tied to the AI boom. US-China Tech Friction: The Pentagon added Baidu, Alibaba and BYD to its “Chinese military companies” list, while US senators urged tighter chip-export rules for Chinese affiliates. India Capital Flows: Indian institutions poured over ₹4 lakh crore into stocks in early 2026, even as global investors pulled back. Data Centres Beyond Mumbai: India’s data-centre buildout is expanding to Hyderabad, Chennai, Delhi NCR, Pune and Bengaluru as AI workloads grow. EU Market Access: EU cleared continued exports of India’s aquaculture products, honey and eggs beyond September 2026. Corporate/Industry: Chery denied any direct investment or tech transfer plans in India, saying cooperation is limited to parts supply. Energy Policy: Former RBI governor C. Rangarajan urged faster shift to sustainable energy to buffer global shocks.

Market Mood: Asian markets slid as a tech-led sell-off and rate-hike fears hit sentiment, with oil jumping on renewed West Asia tensions. India Trade & Industry: India launched the BHAVYA portal to operationalise Bharat’s industrial parks push, while also securing EU clearance to keep exporting aquaculture, honey, eggs and animal casings beyond Sept 2026. Corporate & Finance: Moody’s flagged rising offshore debt and FX risk for Philippines conglomerates, spotlighting First Pacific’s exposure to a stronger US dollar. Clean Energy & Funding: India’s GPS Renewables raised Rs 635 crore in Series C to expand bioenergy, and cancer biotech Immuneel Therapeutics raised Rs 100 crore for CAR-T scale-up. China Economy & Infrastructure: China broke ground on the Three Gorges new waterway project to nearly double inland throughput, and issued a 2026-2030 plan to modernize emergency response. Business Tech: Maybank rolled out Maybank2E, a next-gen regional payments and trade platform for businesses across ASEAN. Geopolitics & Security: AUKUS expanded submarine cooperation to boost Indo-Pacific undersea deterrence.

India Aviation Policy: Andhra Pradesh cleared a sweeping aviation blueprint to build MRO, aerospace clusters and regional airstrips, with new airport plans reshaping Visakhapatnam, Amaravati and the Puttaparthi–Bengaluru corridor. Markets & Rates Shock: Asia stocks sold off hard as US rate-hike fears and Middle East tensions hit tech and semis, while India’s RBI kept rates at 5.25% and signalled a wait-and-watch stance amid higher oil-driven inflation. India Bonds Push: India is pitching sovereign debt inclusion in major bond gauges after tax tweaks for foreign investors, aiming to draw billions into long-dated G-secs. China Investor Calm: China’s regulator said its “illegal” outbound investment crackdown won’t force-close offshore accounts or liquidate assets, easing panic after a selloff. China–Hong Kong Wealth: WRISE launched a Hong Kong “Master Trust” aimed at faster, simpler family-office structuring as demand rises. Corporate India Moves: HDFC Securities upgraded Stylam Industries to Buy on governance improvements and an Aica Kogyo partnership; Motilal Oswal Financial Services saw a Rs 153 crore block deal. APAC Dealmaking: Chinese Taipei pledged USD 1.5m to APEC’s first healthcare sub-fund focused on aging, digital health and telemedicine. Vietnam & ASEAN: Cambodia’s PM Hun Manet arrived in Hanoi for an official visit and the ASEAN Future Forum 2026. Saudi Auto Imports: Saudi vehicle imports hit 1.9m over two years, with China the top supplier.

Aviation & Energy Shock: IATA says 2026 airline net profit will likely halve to about US$23bn as West Asia war disruptions and higher jet fuel prices squeeze margins. Capital Markets Regulation: China’s CSRC chief urged fund managers to back innovation and avoid “concept hype,” as oversight tightens on private funds. Gold & FX Strategy: China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 19 months, adding 320,000 ounces, even as the reserve value fell with lower prices. Regional Trade & Logistics: Thailand is ready to escalate Malaysia’s shrimp import suspension to WTO/ASEAN if talks fail, while Singapore’s gold vaulting demand is rising from India, Indonesia and Vietnam. India Policy & Social Spending: West Bengal will sign up for Ayushman Bharat PM-JAY, becoming the 36th state/UT to implement the health scheme. Energy Reform Debate: World Bank ED Neelkanth Mishra urged India to move faster on energy pricing and reforms to cut imported fuel dependence. Corporate & Market Moves: Ola hit profitability and positive free cash flow, and Gautam Adani reclaimed Asia’s richest spot as group shares rallied. Finance Growth in Central Asia: Uzbekistan’s microfinance and factoring markets expanded sharply in Q1 2026, per central bank data.

Japan Consumer Fraud: Tokyo’s home electrical repair scams are surging, with “professional” ads luring victims into overpriced breaker-panel fixes after online search “traps.” Nuclear Power Planning: Japan’s industry ministry drafts a plan to rebuild up to five nuclear reactors by the 2040s, aiming to replace 11–14 units as older plants retire. China–ASEAN Trade: China’s blueberry exports are booming, with faster logistics under RCEP and the China–Laos Railway helping berries reach Southeast Asia fresher and cheaper. China Espionage in Europe: EU-linked cases show a broader, more professional Chinese intelligence push targeting tech, critical infrastructure and political networks. India Growth Watch: FY27 GDP growth is seen moderating to ~6.5% amid higher input costs, weak monsoon risk from El Nino, and geopolitical drag on exports. Energy Security (India): Oil India reports natural gas in the Andaman Offshore Basin, while India also weighs boosting domestic output to cut West Asia import dependence. Tech & Capital Markets (China): Memory-chip IPO plans from CXMT and YMTC signal AI-driven demand, even as investors debate sustainability. AI Governance (Asia): A study finds AI use is rising fast, but companies struggle to turn saved time into measurable productivity gains. India Digital Fraud: CBI searches in a Rs 661 crore IDFC First Bank–AU Finance Bank fraud case, alleging fund diversion via collusion.

India Economic Resilience: PM Modi chaired the PM-EAC-PM meeting, weighing West Asia-driven risks to oil, shipping and markets, and pushing faster reforms for “Ease of Living” and “Ease of Doing Business.” Energy Security: Malaysia’s Energy Commission is studying an energy regulatory sandbox for a 2027 rollout, while Malaysia’s NSC says fuel supplies are sufficient to end-August and authorities are tightening anti-smuggling efforts. Markets & Finance: India moves to attract foreign capital into G-Secs with tax exemptions for foreign investors and expanded access routes, aiming to deepen the bond market. Oil & Gas Deals: India and Venezuela are exploring deeper energy cooperation as New Delhi seeks diversified crude supplies; Oil India also reported natural gas discoveries in the Andaman offshore basin. Tech & Industry: China’s axial flux motor breakthrough is entering mass production for electric drives, and China’s CSRC crackdown is pushing more offshore brokers to limit mainland clients. Business & Consumer: India standardises edible oil pack sizes to improve price transparency, while Snapchat reports 10x advertiser growth in India. Education & Mobility: University of Liverpool gets approval to open a Bengaluru campus, and TVS is reportedly developing a 160cc maxi-scooter for India.

India Growth Beat: India’s economy grew 7.8% in Q4 FY26 and 7.7% for the full year, with manufacturing and services driving the rebound despite global uncertainty. Flex-Fuel Push: Maruti Suzuki started production of India’s first flex-fuel Wagon R as E85 rollout expands, with other makers already showcasing ethanol-capable models. Digital Infrastructure: AirTrunk plans to invest over Rs 3 lakh crore in India and build 5 GW of data centre capacity, betting on cloud and AI demand. Energy Security: Oil India reported natural gas in an Andaman offshore well, adding momentum to India’s offshore exploration drive. Aerospace Supply Chains: TVS Supply Chain Solutions and Italy’s ALA Group formed a JV to target India’s aerospace and defence supply-chain market. Japan Fiscal Support: Japan passed a 3.11 trillion yen supplementary budget to cushion higher energy costs tied to Middle East risks. Local Governance: Metro Pacific Water took over interim operations of San Jose del Monte’s water system in Bulacan to address service issues affecting 250,000+ residents. Markets Mood: Indian stocks ended lower after RBI signals and global worries weighed on sentiment. Geopolitics: Putin reiterated “trust-based, brotherly” ties with India, while the US imposed fresh sanctions targeting an Iran-linked LPG smuggling network.

India Growth Beat: India’s FY26 real GDP growth came in at 7.7% (Q4 at 7.8%), with broad strength across manufacturing, construction and services, while policymakers flag risks from the Middle East shock. Reform Express: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman vowed to keep pushing reforms after the GDP print, as the RBI keeps a cautious growth outlook for FY27. Energy Transition Push: PM Modi said Gujarat is driving India’s renewable buildout, citing 50 GW of renewable capacity in the state and linking it to green hydrogen, ammonia and steel. Fuel Switch: India launched E85 high-ethanol fuel for flex-fuel vehicles, starting at 48 outlets and targeting 5,000 by Dec 2027 to lift ethanol blending. Japan Cost Relief: Japan passed a $19bn extra budget to cushion households from Middle East-driven energy price pressure. Maritime Green Finance: China and Greece urged deeper cooperation in shipping finance and green development at Posidonia 2026. Tech & Robotics: China’s embodied AI and robotics ecosystem saw big-name progress (including a whole-home world model) even as funding cooled in May. Asia Business Watch: CooperVision and Japan’s myopia-control push highlight a shift toward earlier, device-led monitoring in Asia-Pacific.

India–Venezuela Energy Push: PM Modi met Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodriguez to expand cooperation across energy, critical minerals, tech and agriculture, with MEA calling the match “perfect complementarity” for upstream and downstream oil work. Flex-Fuel Rollout: India is launching E85 ethanol-blended fuel to speed flex-fuel mobility, alongside policy moves to make high-ethanol adoption viable for consumers. SEBI Crackdown: SEBI barred Rajesh Exports CMD Rajesh Mehta over alleged multi-year financial statement manipulation, citing inflated subsidiary revenues and non-cooperation. ATM Cash Crunch: India’s ATM industry warned of service disruption risk as cash availability for replenishment fell far short of needs, hitting rural and semi-urban users. China–North Korea Reset: Xi Jinping will visit North Korea June 8-9, signaling Beijing’s push to deepen ties after years of reduced contact. Japan Seafood Export Surge: Japan’s fishery exports hit a record 423.1 billion yen in 2025 as government support targets overseas demand. Asia Food Risk From El Niño: Dry weather and an expected severe El Niño are already disrupting crop planting across Asia, threatening supplies and raising prices. Clean Energy Deal: Inox Clean Energy agreed to buy Vena Energy India’s 6 GW renewable portfolio, expanding its near-term pipeline and execution capacity.

Thailand Payments Scrutiny: A viral clip alleges a Chinese noodle shop in Bangkok refused Thai baht/Thai QR and demanded renminbi, raising questions about foreign-run businesses’ payment practices and compliance. Malaysia Ageing Demand: Malaysia’s share of people 65+ is projected to jump from 8.1% (2024) to 14.5% (2040), boosting demand for senior living, healthcare and long-term care while stressing system costs. Malaysia Power Transition: Tenaga Nasional says it delivered 4.3GW of renewable capacity and backs grid upgrades tied to data-centre growth under RM43bn grid modernisation plans. India Energy Policy: India approved INR100bn ($1bn) for a jet-fuel price stabilisation fund for airlines, while Maruti launched the first flex-fuel Wagon R (E20–E100) to cut import dependence and emissions. China–Africa Trade: China’s zero-tariff treatment for all 53 African countries with diplomatic ties starts May 1, aiming to deepen trade and lower export costs. China–New Zealand Tensions: China imposed a one-year travel ban on four NZ lawmakers after a Taiwan visit, demanding an apology. Japan Storm Disruption: Tropical storm Jangmi cut power to nearly 60,000 homes and disrupted transport and production. Tech & Security: The FBI and Five Eyes warn Chinese spies are using job sites like LinkedIn to recruit targets and extract sensitive information. Markets: Asia-focused banks slid on reports of tighter offshore investment account rules amid Beijing’s capital-outflow crackdown; Indonesia’s rupiah and stocks also tumbled on policy and macro worries.

South China Sea & Philippines-Taiwan security drift: Manila is signaling deeper security and maritime alignment with Taiwan as it seeks to deter Beijing, with Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro pointing to a growing “convergence” involving Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam. China industrial upgrade: Copper demand is rising as AI servers, data centers and electric vehicles pull more metal, with output and orders expanding for high-voltage and connector-grade products. India power demand: India’s peak power demand hit a record 270.82 GW in May; electricity traded on IEX jumped 18.6% to 12,983 MU as prices and volumes rose. China FX: The yuan weakened to 6.8203 per USD, with central parity rates published across major currencies. India EV bus momentum: JBM Auto shares jumped after it claimed 49% market share in India’s electric bus segment in May, supported by registrations data. Japan retail consolidation: Yamada Holdings and Edion plan a merger to form a larger consumer electronics chain, aiming to boost efficiency and private-label strength. Aviation ties: South Korea and China agreed to expand flight rights for the first time in seven years, adding weekly passenger and cargo capacity. Energy shock watch: Elevated oil prices are expected to weigh on India’s growth, with risks tied to prolonged West Asia tensions. Capital flows push: India is set to scrap capital gains tax on FPI investments in government securities to support overseas inflows, while RBI denies any gold sales. Telecom opening in China: MIIT approved 166 foreign-invested firms for value-added telecom services in pilot zones, including IDC-related activities. EV retail in the UK: JCT600 launched its first AION dealership in Leeds as the Chinese EV brand expands in Britain.

Aviation Support: India approved a $1bn interest-free advance package to oil marketing companies to steady soaring aviation turbine fuel costs after the Iran war, aiming to protect airline connectivity and jobs. AI Investment Pulse: Goldman estimates hyperscaler AI spending by Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet could hit $5.3tn by 2030—bigger than Japan’s GDP—while Ray Dalio says China treats AI like a utility for workers, not a profit-first product. Trade & Tariffs: The US Trade Representative recommended an extra 12.5% tariff on imports from 54 countries, including India, over forced-labour concerns, raising pressure on Asia-Pacific supply chains. Market Access Moves: China approved pilot value-added telecom operations for 166 foreign-invested firms, while India is considering bond tax cuts and easing limits for overseas investors. Energy Transition & Industry: Malaysia’s ETCon26 opened with momentum on CCUS readiness, and Gas Malaysia launched a methane-to-graphene and hydrogen capture system using Levidian tech. Corporate & Deals: Chery is exploring a Sunderland plant tie-up with Nissan for UK carmaking; Hong Kong’s MTR executive Jacob Kam was elected chamber chairman.

US–China Trade Talks: USTR opened a public comment process on the “U.S.-China Board of Trade,” aiming to identify non-sensitive goods for possible tariff cuts, with comments due July 10. Energy & Geopolitics: China says it’s building an “energy powerhouse” via green, innovation-led supply security, while a potential offshore strike in Norway could add fresh uncertainty to global oil and gas markets. Japan Fiscal Support: Japan approved a 3.1 trillion yen extra budget to cushion households from Middle East-linked inflation, with new subsidies likely to start by capping petrol costs. Asia Supply Chains: South Korea’s trade with China swung back to a surplus as memory-chip demand from the AI boom surged. India Trade & Connectivity: India and Myanmar agreed to boost trade using the Rupee-Kyat mechanism and deepen cooperation in agro-processing, energy and mining; India–Oman CEPA also took effect amid West Asia instability. Business & Markets: Japan’s banks and insurers are accelerating sales of strategic shareholdings; Kioxia briefly overtook Toyota in market cap as AI lifts tech demand. Local Economy: Maharashtra acquired the iconic Air India building in Mumbai for ₹1,601 crore. Labor & Security: India’s forest staff face rising violence from timber smugglers and land mafias, raising alarms for environmental governance.

Markets & Capital Flows: Overseas investors’ net equity buying in India slid to a near-decade low, with foreign portfolio investors pulling out as the stock market slips to seventh by value, while AI-led rallies lift Taiwan and South Korea. Commodities: Gold’s rebound cooled as India reportedly sold to defend the rupee amid US-Iran war jitters, even as central-bank gold buying headlines supported prices. Trade & Policy: China’s new zero-tariff access for 53 African countries took effect May 1, aiming to boost Zimbabwe’s women-led manufacturers; separately, ASEAN+3 inflation forecasts were revised higher due to prolonged West Asia disruption. Business & Deals: FIFA struck a last-minute broadcast rights deal with Zee for 2026-2034 events in India; in shipping decarbonisation, COSCO Heavy Industry delivered the first methanol dual-fuel retrofit vessel under Seaspan’s program. Regional Business Climate: Pakistan’s SECP registered 3,161 new companies in May, with 99.9% online and IT leading sectors. Energy & Industry: Japan urged safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in calls with Iran, while India’s DRDO and IAF completed successful RudraM-II missile flight tests from an airborne platform.

Sports & Branding: Stephen Curry ends sneaker free agency with a 10-year shoe and apparel deal with China’s Li-Ning, expanding Curry Brand into basketball, golf and athleisure. US–China Geopolitics: A US-China “reset” is reshaping the Quad’s role toward practical tasks like minerals, energy sales and maritime surveillance as managed competition becomes the new norm. Energy Shock: The Strait of Hormuz disruption is turning into a longer economic threat for Asia, with oil flows down and emergency stockpiles set to run out. China’s Green Push: China accelerates its low-carbon shift via green energy buildout, aiming to meet tighter emissions targets. Pacific Media: Pacific broadcasters face revenue pressure and rising costs, pushing them toward stronger business models, skills and regional tech cooperation. AI & Capital Markets: China’s MiniMax prepares a Shanghai STAR dual listing; Zhipu AI also eyes a domestic listing as AI firms chase valuations. Outbound Investment Rules: China issues sweeping outbound investment regulations, adding a legal basis for retaliation and tighter controls on overseas tech/data transfers. Asia Dealmaking: Blackstone raises $13.1bn for its Asia private equity fund, signaling continued investor appetite despite volatility. EVs in Indonesia: Chinese EVs surge in Indonesia, now close to 90% of the fast-growing BEV market. Trade & Logistics: COSCO’s JV with Spain’s PTP wins approval to redevelop Tarragona port under a 50-year concession.

Philippines Investment Push: President Marcos told investors at the Vietnam-Philippines business forum that the Philippines wants to turn its nickel and “green metal” base into EVs, batteries and digital infrastructure supply chains, while also boosting shipbuilding and defense manufacturing. FIFA Deal for India: Zee Entertainment secured exclusive broadcast rights for 39 FIFA tournaments in India from 2026-2034, including men’s World Cups (2026, 2030) and the 2027 Women’s World Cup, plus youth and futsal events. Australia-PNG Forum: PNG PM James Marape urged investors to look beyond mining and petroleum, promising policy support that links company wins to health, education and infrastructure. Cybersecurity Fallout: The US and EU blamed China-linked hackers for attacks on Microsoft Exchange servers, warning of major economic and security spillovers. India Trade Talks: India and the US are set to sign the first bilateral trade agreement soon, with negotiators meeting June 2-4 and focusing on legal text and remaining details. India Economy Signals: India’s IIP rose 4.9% in April, led by manufacturing, while gold slipped and jet fuel prices in India stayed unchanged in June. CEPA Starts with Oman: India-Oman CEPA customs duty concessions kicked in June 1, aiming to deepen trade connectivity. Food Exports: India’s seafood exports hit record levels in FY25-26, led by frozen shrimp.